Another pretty dodgy week for tipping, even if MAE and Bits made a bit of a comeback. We still haven't had a single team reach positive double figures this year, which shows just how difficult it is to currently build up any sort of momentum. This was also the calmest week in rating movement we've … Continue reading Tipping & Ratings: After Round 6, 2020
Vague Predictions: Before Round 6, 2020
Tipping & Ratings: After Round 5, 2020
No words this week, I've got far too much on.
Vague Predictions: Before Round 5, 2020
I'm sure I don't need to point it out, but St Kilda were the big winners this week and Richmond were the big losers. Joining the Saints on the podium are GWS and the Bulldogs, and we're left with a whole eight teams between 30% and 70%. And since we're only four rounds into the … Continue reading Vague Predictions: Before Round 5, 2020
Tipping & Ratings: After Round 4, 2020
More dodgy tipping this week as the ratings had their calmest week since Round 1. Port Adelaide have taken first place off Collingwood as the race for double figures continues, and Gold Coast continue to make ground on Adelaide. Let's go through some key teams: Port Adelaide: Have taken 1st place in the rankings with … Continue reading Tipping & Ratings: After Round 4, 2020
Tipping: Before Round 4, 2020
Predictions are a bit late this week. I'm running simulations now, since AFL only released the round 7 fixture earlier today. In the meantime, here are the tips. Hopefully we're a bit better than last week. Once again, I'm expecting about 5 or 6 tips. Also once again, my model is proving to be the … Continue reading Tipping: Before Round 4, 2020
Tipping (?) & Ratings: After Round 3, 2020
Uhhhhhhhh... this was not good. Instead of writing about how not good these tips are, let's talk about the 2021 model instead, which I have already started working on. That will hopefully be more productive than me putting my head in my hands and attempting to type out a sad summary using only my elbows. … Continue reading Tipping (?) & Ratings: After Round 3, 2020
Tipping: Before Round 3, 2020
I'm going to be honest, I only have one moderately interesting tip here this week. The model, of course, does not think Gold Coast is suddenly a team that can reliably beat others after a single match of performing about 80% above their expected output. However, that's seemingly the only real divergence from public opinion … Continue reading Tipping: Before Round 3, 2020
Vague Predictions: Before Round 3, 2020
A small note before we get started. Last week's predictions didn't include round 1 results, and some weirdness in the pre-season predictions meant that I didn't realise what had happened until this week. I ran the simulations again as of round 1 so that the changes to this week's ladder are accurate. It probably doesn't … Continue reading Vague Predictions: Before Round 3, 2020
Tipping & Ratings: After Round 2, 2020
While using raw numbers makes it seem like this was a disappointing round compared to round 1, looking at Squiggle standings reveals that my model actually performed better in the chaos of the round. This was significantly helped along by getting within 1 point of 3 margins. Round 2, particularly round 2 three months after … Continue reading Tipping & Ratings: After Round 2, 2020
