The predictions are starting to really tighten up now, with only 5 or 6 matches left for each team. Round 11's winners: Geelong, Melbourne. Round 11's losers: St Kilda, Essendon, Richmond. Three clear premiership favourites have separated from the rest of the pack, but the race is still wide open. We can take a look … Continue reading Vague Predictions: Before Round 12, 2020
Well that sucked. The model invested in upsets this week, and the only one of those that was close was the draw. We got smashed in every metric this week, compared to other models. Geelong are back to the top and Melbourne jumped up by a lot.
A whopping three upsets tipped this week, because that's never gone wrong. Richmond, North Melbourne and Essendon are the underdogs that the model is favouring this week. Richmond and Essendon are very feasible upsets, less so for the North tip.
New this week, top 4 probabilities on the ladder and finals simulations return. The winners this week are Richmond and Geelong, while the losers are Essendon and Brisbane. We also see that there seems to be a clear top 8, now that the Bulldogs and Essendon have dropped to a 31% of making finals. The … Continue reading Vague Predictions: Before Round 11, 2020
Not too bad, unfortunately the metrics were set back by Brisbane's loss to Richmond, which the model invested quite heavily in. This round was the calmest of the season so far, where the teams that played only moved by an average of 0.87 points. Adelaide's last rounds have been the lowest ratings Adelaide have ever … Continue reading Tipping & Ratings: After Round 10, 2020
Oh yeah, here are my tips. All seven seem to be the favourites, although my model is favouring Brisbane far more than others are.
The premiership favourites are still Brisbane and Port Adelaide, and their chances increased to 16% from 14% before Round 9. Good: St Kilda, GWS Giants, Hawthorn. Bad: Collingwood, Carlton, Essendon, W Bulldogs. Rest in peace, Adelaide. They are now 3 wins and a hefty chunk of percentage behind 17th place on the ladder, and they've … Continue reading Vague Predictions: Before Round 10, 2020
Alright, no time to waste. I have to make three posts today when I usually don't like writing more than one in a single day. The model performed pretty well this past round and it got the one tipped upset correct. Good: Brisbane, Port Adelaide, West Coast, St Kilda, N Melbourne. Bad: Adelaide, Sydney, Essendon, … Continue reading Tipping & Ratings: After Round 9, 2020
Fun fact: this is my 300th post. Only one upset tipped this week, Richmond. My model still has them as the number 1 team in the competition but their players are dropping like flies and they're playing against a team they historically don't play particularly well against. This has swung the people away from them … Continue reading Tipping: Before Round 9, 2020
Premiership chances dropped a lot this week, with Port and Brisbane now leading the way with 14%. Something worth noting this week is that other results are starting to have an impact on each team's standing. Melbourne and Gold Coast improved their rating this week, however their standing on the average ladder fell. Brisbane, Bulldogs … Continue reading Vague Predictions: Before Round 9, 2020