Finals prediction: Pre-season, 2016

Well, I guess I should finish off my predictions off from last week. My first round prediction is coming up in a few days so I might as well introduce the format I’ll be using. The predictor gives a winning team, a margin, and a percentage chance of the winner being correct. I think I prefer to simulate results rather than Pythagorean expectation for the percentage, but I still have a lot to learn before I can simulate somewhat-accurately, so I’ll just stick with this for now.

Home Away Predicted result
Qualifying finals
1. Hawthorn 4. Adelaide Hawthorn (67%) by 22
2. Port Adelaide 3. West Coast West Coast (52%) by 2
Elimination finals
5. Sydney 8. Geelong Sydney (62%) by 13
6. Fremantle 7. W Bulldogs Fremantle (64%) by 14
Semi finals
2. Port Adelaide 5. Sydney Port Adelaide (51%) by 2
4. Adelaide 6. Fremantle Adelaide (60%) by 11
Preliminary finals
1. Hawthorn 2. Port Adelaide Hawthorn (70%) by 25
3. West Coast 4. Adelaide West Coast (55%) by 5
Grand final
1. Hawthorn 3. West Coast Hawthorn (69%) by 24

If you want to know the flaws of this system, you can just look at the flaws in the last few posts. The obvious one is that this system is most likely not going to predict any upsets at all. Unfortunately, my system is not advanced enough for that… yet… (give me half a decade).


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