Tipping/Ratings: Post-round 22, 2016

Well, it looks like I'm not going to reach my MAE goal this year. This round's MAE of 25.22 will not be enough from here on out, unless I get most games spot-on from here on out. 7 tips will keep me on-track for my tips goal of averaging over 6.5 per round, though. Home … Continue reading Tipping/Ratings: Post-round 22, 2016 →

Tipping: Pre-round 22, 2016

It looks like the two crunch games of the round are up first, with West Coast poised to shake up the finals the most. The closest game is predicted to be Richmond vs. St Kilda, and the most convincing win is predicted to be GWS over Fremantle. Home Away Venue Predicted result West Coast Hawthorn … Continue reading Tipping: Pre-round 22, 2016 →

Ladder prediction: Post-round 21, 2016

So with 2 round left, my prediction system seems to have settled on a top 4 and top 8. The percentage prediction is way off, but I need to keep it there to show why a team with more mean wins can finish lower than a team with less mean wins. I'll need to fix … Continue reading Ladder prediction: Post-round 21, 2016 →

Tipping/Ratings: Post-round 21, 2016

5 tips with a MAE of 20.89. In terms of targets, this means we are edging closer to my MAE goal of below 30 (currently we're at 30.36) and we're right on the tips goal (6.5 per round). Home Away Venue Predicted result Actual result W Bulldogs Collingwood ES W Bulldogs, 21 W Bulldogs, 3 … Continue reading Tipping/Ratings: Post-round 21, 2016 →

Tipping: Pre-round 21, 2016

Three top 10 showdowns this week and 8 margins within 4 goals. That said, none of the games are predicted to be unbearably close. Home Away Venue Predicted result W Bulldogs Collingwood ES W Bulldogs (75%) by 21 Brisbane Carlton GAB Carlton (67%) by 18 Hawthorn N Melbourne MCG Hawthorn (68%) by 16 GWS Giants … Continue reading Tipping: Pre-round 21, 2016 →

Ladder prediction: Post-round 20, 2016

Hawthorn's loss on the weekend has lead them to drop 3 places, in a week where the top 4 reversed and not much else happened. Adelaide are still outside the 4, but maybe not for much longer. # Team Mean Finishing Position Mean Wins (Current) Predicted % Last week 1 Sydney 2.63 16.34 (14) 147.03 … Continue reading Ladder prediction: Post-round 20, 2016 →

Tipping/Ratings: Post-round 20, 2016

8 out of 9, with a MAE of 31 due to a few blow-outs. Home Away Venue Predicted result Actual result Richmond Collingwood MCG Richmond, 8 Richmond, 15 Sydney Port Adelaide SCG Sydney, 17 Sydney, 67 Melbourne Hawthorn MCG Hawthorn, 23 Melbourne, 29 Gold Coast GWS Giants MS GWS Giants, 28 GWS Giants, 8 W Bulldogs N … Continue reading Tipping/Ratings: Post-round 20, 2016 →