2017 Preview

While some people try to be as accurate as possible with their pre-season simulations, it’s pretty obvious to me that I cannot really do that with my current system. Since I cannot account for personnel changes and players becoming more experienced over the off season, I’m going to stick to calling it “How they would probably do if they played this season in the same shape they finished 2016 in”. Essendon are predicted to do badly since they did so badly without some of their best players last year, Carlton are predicted to do even worse, Adelaide jump to second. Here are my ladder simulations.

Weirdly enough, the Bulldogs’ position has not really improved at all. North have also been given a pretty generous number of wins, considering how they finished last season. They do have 16 wins in their last 30 games, though, so maybe it’s appropriate. It’ll be interesting to see how this changes over the course of the season, because it definitely will change. A lot.

This is how it’s predicted to move around as the season goes by.

Richmond have some pretty winnable games in the first 4 rounds, predicted to start the year strongly before falling away. St Kilda, Melbourne and Port Adelaide are also expected to have stints in the top 8. The latter 3 are featuring strongly in many pre-season predictions, so maybe they’ll stay there instead of dropping away for North to make their way in.

Finally, here are the SccPR3 ratings. Primary HG represents each team’s rating at their primary home ground (the ground they will be play most of their home games at in 2017), orientation states whether a team focuses on attack, defence or both while Prem Window shows how open each team’s premiership window is at the start of the season. Of course, these will all change as the season progresses.

This shows that the teams most likely to take home the premiership cup are Adelaide, GWS and Sydney. Geelong aren’t far behind, while West Coast, the Dogs, and Hawthorn will all struggle, but they do have something of a chance. Something also worth noting is that Collingwood’s rating at the MCG is awful. This is odd because this is the ground they play at for the majority of their season (16 out of their 22 matches in 2017).

And that’s about it. I wouldn’t pay too much attention to many of these figures, as they’ll be changing a lot during the season. The interesting part comes from tracking them.


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