Aaaaand my worst fears were realised. 6 tips (serviceable) at 40.67 MAE (atrocious). I thought it could've gone much worse after I saw the scores for the first 3 games. A lot of movement in the power rankings this week. Port moved up into the top 4 and St Kilda moved into the top 8, … Continue reading Tipping/Ratings: After Round 6, 2017
Oh dear. I guess this is the week where my MAE dies a horrible death. A lot of these margins look far bigger than I'd want them to be, and even 3 upsets will cause me to miss my goal of <30 points. In the meantime, I'll just pray to RNGesus.
We had some big movers this week... I was going to move to 95% accurate win ranges this week, but the ranges started getting really big. I'd rather avoid that, so I changed it back. Adelaide went to a 100% chance of making finals. It's a bit weird seeing that in round 5, but I … Continue reading Ladder prediction: After round 5, 2017
7 out of 9 with a MAE of 29 exactly. This brings us to on average of 6.2 tips per 9 games and a MAE of 30.42. It was a great weekend, where it wasn't a great weekend for every tipster. Every tip was correct and/or every predicted margin was within 30 points of the … Continue reading Tipping/Ratings: After Round 5, 2017
Let's look at where teams are set to move around for the rest of the season, based on mean wins. Note: The brackets in the round 4 column represent where they were predicted to be at round 4 before round 1. The biggest movers are Sydney, who are predicted to move up 10 places from … Continue reading Recap: Rounds 1-4, 2017
My summary of rounds 1 to 4 will have to be a few days late. I've just been a bit too busy to get around to it in a timely fashion. 5 close wins, 1 comfortable win and 3 convincing wins are predicted this week. 5 red games spells disaster this week. In the first … Continue reading Tipping: Before Round 5, 2017
This week, I made some changes to the ladder prediction table (which is why I'm a bit late to post this). Predicted percentage tended to go to unlikely extremes, so I've omitted it for performance reasons until I find a less barbaric way of calculating it. Replacing Predicted percentage in the selected side is Win … Continue reading Ladder Prediction: After Round 4, 2017