Ladder Prediction: After Round 4, 2017

This week, I made some changes to the ladder prediction table (which is why I’m a bit late to post this). Predicted percentage tended to go to unlikely extremes, so I’ve omitted it for performance reasons until I find a less barbaric way of calculating it.

Replacing Predicted percentage in the selected side is Win range, which is hopefully about 90% accurate.

The (>99% accurate) win range for 8th is 9-14 wins, with the mean being 11.73.

17-04-20-ladderpred2

Do you like the Essendon disclaimer at the bottom? I got tired of repeating myself, so that’ll be there until late in the season.

As for the ladder itself, we had some big movers. St Kilda gave themselves a nice boost, lifting their finals chances by about ~11%. They’ll still need to improve a bit before they become finals contenders, though. Hawthorn, on the other hand, dived from ~30% to ~11%. Sydney’s chances are also starting to decline, but SPR3 hasn’t given up on them yet.

 

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