11 movers this week. As previously, there are 6 likely finals candidates and 4 others fighting over the remaining 2 places.
As many have noted, both inside and outside the media, there is a very even spread of finals contenders this year. This shows only 10 teams, but the 5 teams below that are probably only a few surprise wins away from also being considered finals contenders as well. It’s an intriguing season.
Fremantle had the biggest pick-up in finals chances after the big win over Carlton, which was predicted to be much closer. Their chances went from ~12% to ~26%. The biggest drop-off was for St Kilda. Their loss was predicted, but with ratings adjustments and other games’ results, they have gone from ~55% to ~35%. Another interesting result was for Richmond. Despite suffering a 4th straight defeat, their chances went up from ~36% to ~43%. They were expected to lose by a lot more than they did, so I guess that affected the ratings enough that they went up. St Kilda, their closest rival for 8th last week, getting beaten by 50 points would’ve also helped out a lot.
14 wins is the minimum required wins to get 1st place and the maximum required to get 8th. That is a very telling statistic.