So another round bites the dust, as does a round with poor tipping. I'd like to graph how my MAE has been this year, because while it seemed wildly inaccurate at the start of the season, it seems to have ironed out now. Unfortunately, my tipping target is well out of reach now, and I … Continue reading Tipping: After Round 19, 2017
This week, I began work on SPR4, a.k.a. the rating/prediction algorithm I'll be using in 2018. I've been looking a bit further into Pythagorean Projection and some Excel things, and I reckon some of the problems I've been having. However, the main aim is to take opposition strength into account, and that's going to require … Continue reading Tipping: Before Round 19, 2017
It is now impossible for North and Brisbane to make it to the finals. I'm pretty sure 2 teams in the 25-75% zone is the lowest we've had all year, and Essendon is one of them. Collingwood, Fremantle, Gold Coast (who joined the "<0.01%" group) and West Coast all hit their lowest finals chances of … Continue reading Ladder Prediction: After Round 18, 2017
A pretty disappointing round, in the end. If you remember me comparing my tip accuracy depending on how close I expected the game to be, things have normalised there. Red games are now the least accurate, however yellow games are still marginally more accurate than green. 2 weeks after a decrease of more than 10 … Continue reading Tipping/Ratings: After Round 18, 2017
Uh, just pretend I posted this on Thursday. Just as a disclaimer, the Finals Impact Indicator is higher for matched that are key parts of determining the teams that play finals, not what position finals teams are going to be in. That's why Adelaide v Geelong has a tiny FII.
Alright, I'm getting very sloppy with my posting schedule. Everything will be on-time next week. West Coast have returned to the top eight in place of St Kilda, whose finals chances decreased a massive ~41%. Melbourne also lost a bit during their drop to 8th, losing ~14%. But the best news (for me, although perhaps … Continue reading Ladder Prediction: After Round 17, 2017
Apologies for my lateness, I've been pretty sick this week, but now I'm loaded up on painkillers, I can make this post. We had a superb tipping week, this week. Nailed both targets, and we're now very close to the MAE goal for 2017. Meanwhile in the ratings, I removed the Essendon disclaimer, as it's … Continue reading Tipping: After Round 17, 2017