Tipping: Before Round 3, 2018


Here’s a nice new addition to the site. These posts will continue to feature a summary of my tips for the coming week, but the This Week’s Tips page will now show a few more details such as how much each team is predicted to score, and the percentage chance of the home team winning. It’s not pretty looking but, for the moment, it serves a purpose.

I’ve broken a golden rule this week, and made a small adjustment to tipping calculations. The effect on tips will be mostly negligible, but one game that was affected was Gold Coast’s “home” game against Fremantle, which originally had Fremantle winning.

From the looks of things, I’ve got 2 upsets tipped this week. The aforementioned Gold Coast win, and Geelong defeating West Coast. Of course, since there isn’t much data for Perth Stadium and I haven’t really accounted for them moving to a new home ground, it’s likely that West Coast would be predicted to win this encounter given a few more weeks.

Note: Like last week, I should clarify that this model has essentially been designed to give me the lowest MAE. This means that there will not be many (if any) bold margins, and they’ll just be very safe and conservative.


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