Predictions: After Round 3, 2018

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This week, Geelong and Essendon’s final chances took a dive and everyone below them (excluding St Kilda) actually had their finals chances go up as a result. Ultimately, though, the biggest winners were Melbourne who went up a solid 16% and 3 places after a good showing on the weekend. Interestingly, the bottom team (currently Carlton) now has a finals chance of 2.16%. Maybe it’s a case of improving my model, but that is easily the highest finals chances a bottom team has had since I started doing sims at the start of last year. At any rate, it shows that the competition has become more even the further the season has gone on (the bottom finals chance has gone from 0.48% to 0.64% to 1.85% to 2.16%). The top 4 are looking very safe at this rate, though. Apart from Adelaide’s dip after round 1, all of them have remained above 90% since the season has begun. The bottom team’s mean wins is also at the highest it has been this season, as well the top team’s mean wins being at its lowest point.

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This week, the 2018 premiership has returned to being a three-horse race, with Adelaide returning to favouritism. Port’s chances went down 3% to compensate, while GWS’ slow rise has been stunted after losing to favourites Sydney on the weekend. Melbourne rose by a bit less than 1% to take 6th after being ranked as 9th-favourite last week. One thing worth noting is that for the whole season, the top 3 favourites have been 3 of the grand finalists for the previous 2 years. The 4th grand finalist is, of course, the Western Bulldogs, who only have a 0.02% chance of repeating their 2016 success this year.


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