Tipping/Ratings: After Round 4, 2018

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I could sit here and discuss some talking point of the round, but I think it’d quickly devolve into angry rambling about how many blow-outs there were this round, how badly that affected my MAE and Jesus, what the hell are Carlton doing?

After having the differences between mine and all the other armchair analysts’ models highlighted on Squiggle, I’ve come to realise that plenty of things in my model need quite a bit – okay, a lot – of adjustment. While I won’t change the model that I’ll be using this season, I’ll probably get started on next year’s version just so I can feel like I’m doing something about it. Last round had ridiculous margins and no-one’s going to do well then, but that’s all the more reason to capitalise on the rounds with more predictable outcomes – which my model isn’t currently doing.

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We had a lot of movement in ratings and rankings this week, with Richmond, Hawthorn, West Coast, Collingwood and North Melbourne having big increases in ratings while Adelaide, Melbourne, Carlton and Gold Coast had big decreases. It’s especially bad for Gold Coast, who had been improving their standing in recent weeks, all for this round’s results to send them backwards.

Adelaide’s loss caused them to lose their “best attack” title to Richmond, but the “worst attack”, “best defence” and “worst defence” titles were all kept by their respective clubs.


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