Tipping: Before Round 5, 2018

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First things first. After some Twittering I have discovered a pretty major flaw with how the venue being played at is affecting the predicted outcome of a match. With this in mind, I am coming up with a solution. However, with a few busy weeks ahead of me, I might have to put that on hold for now. By then, it’ll be a bit late in the season to make adjustments, so I might do what’s known as “chucking a Matter of Stats” and run the current model and the hopefully new & improved edition alongside each other for the remainder of the season.

I promise I’ll do more testing for 2019.

As for the tipping, 2 underdogs have been tipped this week. The first is the Bulldogs defeating Fremantle. Unfortunately, this could indeed be a case of the venue problem I highlighted earlier, as Freo have impressed in their first 2 outings at the new Perth Stadium. The other upset tipped is Essendon over Collingwood on ANZAC Day. The difference in this is also down to venue. Collingwood have been well below their best at the MCG for quite some time, while Essendon have been pretty good there, although with less recent history as they play most of their games at Docklands.


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