Predictions: After Round 8, 2018

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One big question this week: how the everliving Johnny “The Doc” Docker did Fremantle jump from a 4% chance of making finals to 35% in a single week? Something must’ve gone wrong somewhere, because even if they were tipped to lose against St Kilda, it was still judged as a 50/50. Or maybe it was due to rivals around their area of the ladder faltering?

The two biggest decreases of the week are currently predicted to come in 9th  and 11th, both next to Fremantle’s new predicted placing of 10th. GWS fell from a healthy 64% to a more questionable 49%, while Collingwood fell 19 percentage points to 28%. Melbourne capitalised alongside Freo, gaining 11 percentage points to reach 50% for the 2nd time this season.

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Nice of you to join us, West Coast.

Yes, West Coast are now in the top 3 premiership chances, partly due to Adelaide dropping about 5% this week. A bit lower, GWS have lost almost all their premiership chances over the course of 2 underwhelming weeks. Also worth noting is that Richmond somehow still keep climbing, gaining another 4% this week.

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I thought this would be a nice thing to add this week, just to figure out who are we likely to see in the grand final if Richmond falter? Sydney and West Coast is (somewhat predictably) the highest pair that doesn’t feature Richmond, but they’re only the 7th most likely pairing. All in all, Richmond take up 7 of the 10 most likely grand final match-ups, with the remaining 3 being a round robin between Sydney, West Coast and Adelaide.

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