Tipping: Before Round 11, 2018


Top 8 Importance has returned this week. It’s a very simple equation derived from each team’s chance of making finals. Two teams that have a 50% chance of making finals will achieve a maximum T8I score of 100. Since West Coast have close to no chance of missing finals while St Kilda have close to no chance of reaching finals, they get a score of 0. Tony Corke from Matter of Stats has a much better system and he actually publishes the most important matches of the remaining season, so go check that out if you want a bit more depth.

Round 11 is looking pretty open-and-shut for the the most part. It’s not often my algorithm tips margins of 4+ goals and we’ve managed to get 4 this week. There are also no games that have divided the Squiggle crowd apart from Hawthorn vs. Port Adelaide, but for once I wasn’t one of the people picking the upset.


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