A pretty open-and-shut round, but I did pick the only upset picked by anyone on Squiggle this week. No-one has any faith in Melbourne except for my model, with their game against Port Adelaide occurring at a ground formerly nicknamed 'the Portress'. Melbourne have only beaten one top 8 team at the moment, North Melbourne, … Continue reading Tipping: Before Round 14, 2018
This week had the smallest amount of movement for the year. Adelaide dropped from 22% to 8% and were the only team to have a significant drop in finals chances. Hawthorn and Port Adelaide gained decent ground, going from 52% to 72% and 71% to 83%, respectively. The finals are now a 10-horse race, with … Continue reading Predictions: After Round 13, 2018
I'm pretty sure this is the first round of the season where I met both of my targets. The margin is a bit shifty in some of the matches but I still met my MAE target, so that's fine. With GWS getting a bye last weekend, their rating remains adjusted for another week. However, they … Continue reading Tipping/Ratings: After Round 13, 2018
No real upsets picked this week, but there are two tips I want to highlight. Firstly, Fremantle. Carlton vs. Fremantle seems to be a 50/50 game, since it's at the Docklands and Fremantle are a bit iffy away from home. Both teams have some incredibly talented midfielders in Cripps and Fyfe, and they have a … Continue reading Tipping: Before Round 13, 2018
The impulsiveness of the top 8 percentage continues, with GWS gaining 23% after returning to form in recent weeks. Collingwood also rose 14% after winning a 50/50 game against Melbourne. The Demons lost a little bit of ground, but not nearly as much as Adelaide or North Melbourne. Adelaide lost a 50/50 game and then … Continue reading Predictions: After Round 12, 2018
I don't normally post this early after a round or so late in the day, but with the short turnaround between rounds I need to get a move on. My tips also need to get a move on, with another unsuccessful round this week. However, I am happy that the underdog Fremantle tip worked out … Continue reading Tipping/Ratings: After Round 12, 2018
Happy Friday! Unfortunately, I'm a bit bedridden at the moment so I'm not going to do much of a write-up this week. Brisbane and Fremantle are my underdog tips. Port v Richmond is interesting as bookie prices favour Port Adelaide at the minute, but every model on Squiggle is tipping a Richmond win.