Predictions: After Round 15, 2018

ladder-18-07-04

There are 4 significant moves this week, a week which also sees Richmond shore up minor premiership favouritism with their win over Sydney.

The most obvious move came from GWS, who gained a whopping 28% to move to a 68% chance of making the finals. They also moved up 3 places to 7th.

On the other hand, Geelong, Melbourne and North Melbourne found themselves on the downswing, all losing roughly 12% and moving down 1 spot each after GWS jumped all 3 of them. GWS’ revival, as well as all three teams losing, contributed to the movement.

placings-18-07-04

My simulations seem to think most of the teams in the bottom 8 only have a small amount of room to move for the final place on the ladder, and it also seems to think Richmond have an 87% chance of winning the minor premiership.

Which does seem a bit ridiculous with 8 matches left, even if they are effectively 2 games (1 win and a lot of percentage) clear of their nearest rival as it currently stands.

prem-18-07-04

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Speaking of ridiculous percentages, if the premiership goes to anyone other than Richmond it will apparently be considered a major shock, with them being given a 69% chance of winning the premiership and an 86% chance of making the grand final. With Sydney dropping 4% of their premiership chances, it’s now Richmond vs. a pack of dark horses.

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