Predictions: After Round 16, 2018

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I’ve added a Rem. Wins column this week, showing roughly how many wins a team needs to get in the remainder of the home & away season to reach their expected wins. Considering my ratings algorithm ranks Gold Coast as the worst team in the competition by a fair distance, it’s unsurprising that they have the least amount of expected wins remaining. Hawthorn have a different explanation. They have the second highest remaining wins due to playing Brisbane, Carlton, Fremantle, Essendon, Geelong, St Kilda and Sydney. While Geelong and Sydney should be tough foes, the other 5 are in the bottom 7 of my predicted ladder.

There were a few small movements this week, with the only big move coming from GWS who dived back down after a big increase last week. They lost 18% of their premiership chances to jump back down to 51%. Sydney also dropped 3 positions after losing 9%. This is noteworthy because it’s not very often a team falls out of the 90-100% range once they make it there, especially because they have been in that range for every week of this season outside of this round and round 7.

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Sydney’s dive continued in premiership chances, with their percentage halving. Geelong, Hawthorn and Port Adelaide recovered a bit but this graph is still leaning towards a Richmond premiership in the same way Michael Jackson leans in his music video for Smooth Criminal.

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