Before we dive in – an explanation. I’ve had a virus this week, so I missed a few posts. Yes, again. In addition to that, something went seriously wrong with the simulations and I haven’t had time to see why Melbourne’s premiership chances have suddenly gained 10% and why Richmond suddenly lost 15%. I’m assuming it’s a bug, but I have no idea what’s causing it at this stage – or whether the bug was effecting my simulations before this round instead. Or whether it actually was programmed for 100 point victories to completely change premiership odds. Either way, I didn’t really want to publish them until I figured the issue out.
This week, I’ve got two upsets lined up.
Hawthorn def. Geelong: This is the interesting tip because it’s the game that has divided the Squiggle tipsters this week. I have Hawthorn as the better ranked team, both in general and at the MCG specifically. It should be a really interesting game that I sadly cannot watch. But I’ll enjoy watching the live score as much as I possibly can. These teams also have a great rivalry going on and it features 2 of the better match day coaches in the league.
Port Adelaide def. by West Coast: Here’s my unlikely upset tip of the week, and another game that’s probably worth watching even though I won’t be able to watch this one either. The problem is that West Coast are now missing 3 of their best players. Nic Naitanui’s injured, Josh Kennedy’s injured, and Andrew Gaff… I think he might be injured too? I haven’t really heard anything about him this week, I wonder where he’s gone.
Here are the ratings from the weekend if you wanted a look.