A bit late, but here are this week's tips. This week's most interesting game is Hawthorn-West Coast. Most of the models had tipped Hawthorn despite West Coast being the punter's favourites. This can happen when there's a narrative of a team playing better during the week. Whether the Eagles are "back" or not is irrelevant, … Continue reading Tipping: Before Round 15, 2019
Whoops, I didn't post my tips before the round. Well, if you pay attention to Squiggle, you'd know that I didn't make any upset calls in this round just past. However, there were a lot of games that were predicted to be very close. Luckily, I got all of them right and lost on the … Continue reading Tipping & Ratings: After Round 14, 2019
Fun fact: If you went with all 6 favourites this weekend, you would've tipped 6 out of 6. Sadly, it makes the Port tip a little bit silly. It was still a fairly good round, it's just a shame that my MAE wasn't as good as it could've been. As expected, the Fremantle win generated … Continue reading Tipping & Ratings: After Round 13, 2019
One "upset" this week, but it's a very contested tip that is fraught with danger: Port Adelaide over Fremantle. My algorithm is also a lot more committed to St Kilda and the Bulldogs than other models.
Sadly, for a third consecutive week, my algorithm had a disappointing outcome, well below the number of tips I wanted and my MAE was a bit above what I wanted. The Sydney-West Coast match perfectly demonstrated the pros of a player-based model (Yeo and Hurn were both outs for West Coast, 2 of their best … Continue reading Tipping & Ratings: After Round 12, 2019
Oh boy, the first bye round (a.k.a. the week I give up on SuperCoach) has begun. No upsets tipped this week. However, it's worth mentioning that my model is a lot more committed to these tips than others. The first two/three are generally tipped to be much closer by other models.
A mixed week. The upset tip (Hawthorn) did not end up paying off, and 2 upsets pushed me under my weekly tipping goal. As well as that, 3 of the correct tips had a blowout that also pushed my MAE above my weekly target. That said, the week still wasn't that bad. I'm only holding … Continue reading Tipping & Ratings: After Round 11, 2019