Tipping & Ratings: After Round 21, 2019


This is one of those sad weeks where the upsets didn’t pay off, 0/2 with Bulldogs and St Kilda winning as favourites. I was very lucky to get my MAE back to a manageable state after a horror first 2 days with a MAE of 51.3. A (mostly) very predictable Sunday got me back where I wanted to be.


Now for the obvious stuff. Bulldogs good, Bombers bad. Hawks good, Giants bad. The Bulldogs win generated an enormous 10 points of movement, moving the Bulldogs up to their highest rating of the year and Essendon to their lowest. The latter are also now the team on the biggest decline over the last month, too. For the other match that generated a massive amount of movement (nowhere near as much, but 6.5 would easily be a huge amount in any other week), GWS are at their lowest point of the year. Just 10 weeks ago they hit 12 points, but they’ve been on a long decline since then. Injuries can do that to you, I guess.

Highest rating of the season (with previous highs and recent trends):

  • Brisbane (7.8 | previously 5.7 last week | up 12.4 in last 8 matches)
  • Port Adelaide (4.5 | previously 2.5 last week | up 5.5 in last 3 matches)
  • W Bulldogs (0.9 | previously -3.8 after round 17 | up 10.3 in last 8 matches)
  • Carlton (-8.5 | previously -8.8 last week | up 15.4 in last 11 matches)

Lowest rating of the season (with previous lows and recent trends):

  • Gold Coast (-28.4 | previously -27.8 before round 1 | down 3.4 in last 2 matches)
  • Essendon (-6.1 | previously -1.0 last week | down 9.7 in last 3 matches)
  • Collingwood (0.1 | previously 0.3 after round 19 | down 10.6 in last 8 matches)
  • GWS Giants (2.6, previously 5.8 after round 17 | down 9.4 in last 9 matches)

Other points of interest:

  • Geelong are back in 1st. They had been 1st from the start of the season until they finally got overtaken by West Coast last week.
  • Richmond are the new most improved team of the last month. They’ve improved by 5.5 rating points in their previous 4 matches.
  • Essendon are now the team in the biggest decline over the last month, dropping 8.4 rating points.