Well that sucked. The model invested in upsets this week, and the only one of those that was close was the draw. We got smashed in every metric this week, compared to other models. Geelong are back to the top and Melbourne jumped up by a lot.
Not too bad, unfortunately the metrics were set back by Brisbane's loss to Richmond, which the model invested quite heavily in. This round was the calmest of the season so far, where the teams that played only moved by an average of 0.87 points. Adelaide's last rounds have been the lowest ratings Adelaide have ever … Continue reading Tipping & Ratings: After Round 10, 2020
Alright, no time to waste. I have to make three posts today when I usually don't like writing more than one in a single day. The model performed pretty well this past round and it got the one tipped upset correct. Good: Brisbane, Port Adelaide, West Coast, St Kilda, N Melbourne. Bad: Adelaide, Sydney, Essendon, … Continue reading Tipping & Ratings: After Round 9, 2020
Oh well, 5 out of 7 on favourites and 0 out of 2 on underdogs. Outside of tips, it was actually a fairly solid week, improving the season's MAE and Bit metrics while also improving my standing on Squiggle. West Coast: The Eagles are back in the upper echelon of the ratings after an atrocious … Continue reading Tipping & Ratings: After Round 8, 2020
A fairly good performance this week. The only game the model missed, and probably was tipped by the majority of people, was Gold Coast's big win against Sydney. This is a difficult prediction for a model to make, and in future I'll need to add player ratings to account for injuries. That and I'll need … Continue reading Tipping & Ratings: After Round 7, 2020
No words this week, I've got far too much on.
More dodgy tipping this week as the ratings had their calmest week since Round 1. Port Adelaide have taken first place off Collingwood as the race for double figures continues, and Gold Coast continue to make ground on Adelaide. Let's go through some key teams: Port Adelaide: Have taken 1st place in the rankings with … Continue reading Tipping & Ratings: After Round 4, 2020
Uhhhhhhhh... this was not good. Instead of writing about how not good these tips are, let's talk about the 2021 model instead, which I have already started working on. That will hopefully be more productive than me putting my head in my hands and attempting to type out a sad summary using only my elbows. … Continue reading Tipping (?) & Ratings: After Round 3, 2020
While using raw numbers makes it seem like this was a disappointing round compared to round 1, looking at Squiggle standings reveals that my model actually performed better in the chaos of the round. This was significantly helped along by getting within 1 point of 3 margins. Round 2, particularly round 2 three months after … Continue reading Tipping & Ratings: After Round 2, 2020
Well, since I never posted my results for round 1, 2020, here we go. # represents my placing on Squiggle, which I think is a good way to see how I'm performing versus other models of the internet: not particularly well, as it turns out. However, it's only round 1 and there's plenty of time … Continue reading Tipping & Ratings: After Round 1, 2020