Oh well, 5 out of 7 on favourites and 0 out of 2 on underdogs. Outside of tips, it was actually a fairly solid week, improving the season's MAE and Bit metrics while also improving my standing on Squiggle. West Coast: The Eagles are back in the upper echelon of the ratings after an atrocious … Continue reading Tipping & Ratings: After Round 8, 2020
Expectation is about 5.7 tips. Tipped upsets include Richmond over GWS and Collingwood over West Coast, while I also seem to be favouring Geelong over Fremantle much more than other models.
I'm still not publishing all of the model's premiership odds but Port Adelaide remain the leaders on 17%. The three biggest winners this week are Brisbane, Collingwood and West Coast. Brisbane and Collingwood and firmly in premiership contention, while West Coast are recovering after a horror start to the season left them with only 23% … Continue reading Vague Predictions: Before Round 8, 2020
A fairly good performance this week. The only game the model missed, and probably was tipped by the majority of people, was Gold Coast's big win against Sydney. This is a difficult prediction for a model to make, and in future I'll need to add player ratings to account for injuries. That and I'll need … Continue reading Tipping & Ratings: After Round 7, 2020
I did this graphic up a bit since the This Week's Tips page is going to be retired after this week. Goodbye dumb page that was annoying to update every week and I'm not sure why I persisted with it instead of just giving Squiggle a CSV which is what I'm now doing.
Since it's become apparent that there won't be any new fixtures announced until next week, it's time for another one of these posts! Uncertainty has been fixed this week, and I'm about as happy with these sims as I can be considering we only know the next two rounds of the fixture. The finals graphic … Continue reading Vague Predictions: Before Round 7, 2020
Another pretty dodgy week for tipping, even if MAE and Bits made a bit of a comeback. We still haven't had a single team reach positive double figures this year, which shows just how difficult it is to currently build up any sort of momentum. This was also the calmest week in rating movement we've … Continue reading Tipping & Ratings: After Round 6, 2020
No words this week, I've got far too much on.
I'm sure I don't need to point it out, but St Kilda were the big winners this week and Richmond were the big losers. Joining the Saints on the podium are GWS and the Bulldogs, and we're left with a whole eight teams between 30% and 70%. And since we're only four rounds into the … Continue reading Vague Predictions: Before Round 5, 2020