CS: Before PGL Copenhagen 2024 Playoffs

I'm now at 2.5 Bits, earning a little less than what I earned in the Opening Stage. Again, these are pretty bad numbers compared to AFL models but I think CS is just inherently harder to predict. I'm happy with positive Bits. I messed up some code in the last post, so the ratings here …

AFL: Before Round 3, 2024

Still busy, sadly, but I am very happy with this week. Still last on Squiggle but doing okay in the other more descriptive metrics.

CS: Before PGL Copenhagen 2024 Elim Stage

First, results. I don't really have a graphic for this, but I will say that we got about 1.35 Bits across the 33 matches in the Opening Stage. This is a reasonable return, and possibly could've been bigger if StRAinE didn't have a tendency to sit on the fence as much. If anyone was wondering, …

AFL: Before Round 2, 2024

Well, this has been my worst start to a season ever. The only thing to take solace in is that I'm not last in MAE on Squiggle. I'm very busy with my degree right now so this'll be an image post.

CS: Before PGL Copenhagen 2024 (Introducing StRAinE)

Stattraction Rounds Against Expected (StRAinE) is a new model I'm using for Counter-Strike. It still has a lot of room for improvement (as you'll see below!) but it's on the right track. It's here where we get the first issues. With a small sample size, we can see 5 teams that StRAinE thinks is worth …

AFL: Before Round 1, 2024

I'm already 2 tips behind on Squiggle and on -0.45 Bits? That's bad! Gold Coast and Richmond were unsurprisingly the best and worst team of the round respectively. It could've easily been GWS and Collingwood, but Collingwood did well enough in junk time to recover a little. We have some rapid movement to kick off …

AFL: Before Round 0, 2024

Hello again. I actually planned to make a new website this off-season and not be so reliant on the ol' blog. Alas, I didn't have the time and I'm not even sure my models are good enough to have one of those slick Wheelo-style sites. And I guess I have to say that, once again, …