It’s been over 9 months since my last Sports Climbing post in which I introduced my model and gave myself some goals for improving it. I’m glad to say that I’ve achieved what I outlined as goals in that post and I’m ready to take on the IFSC circuit and Olympics.
Let’s start with the rankings, and then I’ll get into my projections for Keqiao.
No real surprises in the women’s ratings. Janja leads the way after being in superb form when she’s been able to climb. She has found the zone in every single boulder she’s climbed in the last two years and topped 91% of them. Natalia Grossman and Brooke Raboutou are also impressively in the mid-to-high 90s, but they don’t have Janja’s perfect record and they aren’t close to her absurd top % either.
Things are remarkably less nationally diverse in the men’s rankings, where only three countries are represented in the top ten. Narasaki Tomoa remains somewhat comfortably on top, but Anraku Sorato could make up the difference soon.
Any regular reader of the little corner of the internet called Stattraction would know that I am quick to criticise my predictive models when they jump to an extreme conclusion. This is not one of those instances. Garnbret is astonishing, and a 92% chance of winning feels about right. The only criticism I might be able to conjure is that, with a new season in front of us, she might have worse form coming into this season. But that’s it, she should win this, especially with the rest of the top four absent for this event.
In the men’s event, we have something a bit more believable for curious bystanders. Narasaki Tomoa is the big favourite, followed by a selection of contenders and underdogs. The elite level of bouldering is a lot more Asia-heavy than the women’s cohort, so it’s not surprising to see less of the elite athletes skip this event.
The post for Wujiang – the first lead climbing event of the season – will be posted in the coming days. And I have my weekly AFL post and a Counter-Strike post coming up soon. It’s a busy time!
Stattraction 